Credit Spreads on Nik's Signals — Overview per Strategy (by year)

📏 Size (important for reading): 1 unit of notional (≈ 1 ETH) per signal, no compounding, no risk-scaling. All numbers = sum of per-trade P&L in % of the ETH spot at entry. "+50%" = summed over all trades, not +50% on the account. The FUTURES row is sized the same way (1 ETH, Entry→Exit move%) → fair to compare. (On the reproduction page the futures is instead risk-scaled & compounding — hence much larger percentages there; do not compare 1:1 with this page.)

Variants — what they mean (the two numbers = strike distances from spot, in %):

Variant	Meaning
● Naked 5%	sell 1 option 5% away, NO hedge — ⚠ unlimited risk
● Spread 5→15%	sell 5% away, buy protection 15% away — wide & safe
● Spread 3→10%	closer to money (3%) → more premium, hit more often
● Spread ATM→10%	sell at-the-money → max premium, aggressive
● Spread ITM3→-10%	sell 3% IN-the-money, buy -10% protection — bigger premium, leans into the signal
● Spread ITM5→-10%	sell 5% IN-the-money, buy -10% — even more directional (needs the move to come)
● Risk-Reversal	sell put + buy call = synthetic future, ~0 cost (not real harvesting)

How to read: the credit earns less than the futures, but with a much smaller drawdown (see the MaxDD column). Model DVOL+BS, no jump risk → real crash DD is larger (real Tardis marks 2026: Nik Algos page, steps 2c–2e).