🛡️ BTC Conservative Weekly Seller (S3+1)

Sell a weekly OTM strangle (put + call) and run a daily long-only hedge against it. The wide-OTM "conservative" family is the lowest-drawdown weekly seller we have on real Tardis data.

Variations — 16 Tardis weeks (2026-01-23 → 05-15), real bid/ask

pct = % notional per cycle, summed. LIMIT @ mid = realistic fill, EXEC = worst-case (cross spread), Mid/M2 = reference.

Setup	OTM	Hedge	Wk	LIMIT	Win	DD	EXEC	EXEC-DD	Mid	M2
cons-7-7 ⭐	7% / 7% OTM	2× daily	16	+3.84%	100%	+0.00%	+0.96%	-3.02%	+5.48%	+4.95%
cons-8-8 ⭐	8% / 8% OTM	2× daily	16	+4.66%	94%	-0.12%	+0.03%	-2.62%	+2.95%	+5.84%
cons-9-9	9% / 9% OTM	2× daily	16	+1.79%	81%	-0.30%	-3.50%	-3.80%	-0.81%	+6.19%
cons-10-10	10% / 10% OTM	2× daily	16	+0.53%	88%	-1.09%	-5.10%	-5.10%	-2.84%	+4.76%
cons-9-9-1x	9% / 9% OTM	1× daily	16	-1.00%	88%	-3.67%	-4.53%	-6.06%	-2.87%	+1.21%
cons-9-9-3day	9% / 9% OTM	2× 3-day	16	+1.41%	69%	-0.16%	-10.33%	-10.33%	-3.27%	+4.06%
cons-8-8-3day	8% / 8% OTM	2× 3-day	16	+2.93%	75%	-0.29%	-7.91%	-9.37%	-0.71%	+4.25%

Pick: cons-7-7 — +3.84% Limit / 100% win / 0.00% Limit-DD / +0.96% Exec (the only variant clearly positive on worst-case fills). cons-8-8 makes a touch more on Limit (+4.66%) but is only breakeven on Exec. 9-9 and 10-10 lose on Exec (premium too thin for the hedge cost).

Week-by-week — cons-7-7 (recommended)

CUM = cumulative equity curve. ✓✗ = Limit / Exec win flags.

Date	Spot	Δ%	Limit	CUM Lim	Exec	CUM Exec	Mid	M2	W/L
2026-01-23	$89,166	-7.3%	+0.18%	+0.18%	-0.20%	-0.20%	+0.03%	+0.19%	✓✗
2026-01-30	$82,624	-21.5%	+0.57%	+0.75%	+4.14%	+3.94%	+4.60%	+6.64%	✓✓
2026-02-06	$64,860	+2.8%	+0.06%	+0.81%	-1.04%	+2.90%	-0.53%	-1.93%	✓✗
2026-02-13	$66,670	+1.8%	+0.20%	+1.01%	+0.08%	+2.99%	+0.37%	+0.33%	✓✓
2026-02-20	$67,852	+0.1%	+0.11%	+1.12%	-1.12%	+1.86%	-0.52%	-0.25%	✓✗
2026-02-27	$67,900	+4.2%	+0.25%	+1.37%	-0.63%	+1.24%	-0.28%	-0.40%	✓✗
2026-03-06	$70,756	+1.5%	+0.33%	+1.70%	-0.24%	+0.99%	+0.15%	-0.73%	✓✗
2026-03-13	$71,795	-1.1%	+0.59%	+2.28%	+0.51%	+1.50%	+0.66%	+0.24%	✓✓
2026-03-20	$71,011	-4.4%	+0.14%	+2.43%	+0.07%	+1.57%	+0.22%	-0.23%	✓✓
2026-03-27	$67,874	-1.4%	+0.24%	+2.66%	+0.08%	+1.65%	+0.31%	+0.37%	✓✓
2026-04-03	$66,941	+6.9%	+0.06%	+2.73%	-0.23%	+1.42%	-0.14%	-0.15%	✓✗
2026-04-10	$71,581	+5.8%	+0.40%	+3.12%	+0.03%	+1.46%	+0.23%	+0.11%	✓✓
2026-04-17	$75,739	+2.6%	+0.25%	+3.37%	+0.06%	+1.52%	+0.18%	+0.30%	✓✓
2026-04-24	$77,746	-0.5%	+0.25%	+3.62%	-0.29%	+1.23%	+0.24%	+0.37%	✓✗
2026-05-01	$77,326	+3.3%	+0.04%	+3.66%	-0.31%	+0.92%	-0.17%	-0.23%	✓✗
2026-05-08	$79,850	+1.0%	+0.18%	+3.84%	+0.05%	+0.96%	+0.12%	+0.33%	✓✓

Caveats (read before sharing)

• 16-week Tardis sample only — small. One violent crash week could change the picture; no M2 long-history yet for this family.
• Exec drag is the binding constraint — the daily hedge crosses the spread every day. Only the wide-OTM 7-8% variants survive worst-case fills.
• Numbers settle on clean OHLC bars (not affected by the Tardis underlying-tick bug that hit the 0DTE study).
• Returns are % of notional per weekly cycle; annualized this is a low-double-digit carry with very small drawdown — a yield overlay, not a high-CAGR play.