Overnight Strikes — ATM vs OTM Comparison

One normalized position per night, naked, real Tardis ledger Jan–May 2026 (limit fills at mid; exec column = full cross fills for honesty). Companion to the overnight report.

ETH — sell PUT (naked, nightly, real marks)

Strike	nights	win%	avg bps	Total% lim	Total% exec	worst%	MaxDD%	r/DD
ATM	121	72	17.4	+21.08	+8.36	-3.34	-6.95	3.0
+1% OTM	121	81	12.0	+14.58	+10.12	-3.34	-5.41	2.7
+2% OTM	121	89	9.3	+11.23	+8.78	-1.82	-3.37	3.3
+3% OTM	121	96	7.3	+8.83	+6.90	-1.58	-1.71	5.2
+5% OTM ★	119	100	5.6	+6.61	+5.24	+0.01	+0.00	99.0

ETH — sell CALL (naked, nightly, real marks)

Strike	nights	win%	avg bps	Total% lim	Total% exec	worst%	MaxDD%	r/DD
ATM	121	63	0.1	+0.17	-5.13	-2.82	-7.39	0.0
+1% OTM	121	79	-1.3	-1.59	-4.55	-2.82	-7.39	-0.2
+2% OTM	121	93	6.2	+7.53	+5.61	-1.58	-1.58	4.8
+3% OTM ★	120	96	4.9	+5.86	+4.37	-0.69	-0.69	8.5
+5% OTM	106	99	1.0	+1.04	+0.03	-2.52	-2.52	0.4

BTC — sell PUT (naked, nightly, real marks)

Strike	nights	win%	avg bps	Total% lim	Total% exec	worst%	MaxDD%	r/DD
ATM	121	75	17.1	+20.75	+13.31	-3.09	-5.26	3.9
+1% OTM	121	87	6.5	+7.84	+5.47	-2.36	-3.92	2.0
+2% OTM	121	95	6.2	+7.50	+5.89	-1.57	-1.65	4.5
+3% OTM	120	99	5.4	+6.43	+5.22	-0.07	-0.07	86.1
+5% OTM ★	88	100	3.7	+3.27	+2.46	+0.01	+0.00	99.0

BTC — sell CALL (naked, nightly, real marks)

Strike	nights	win%	avg bps	Total% lim	Total% exec	worst%	MaxDD%	r/DD
ATM	121	68	-1.9	-2.28	-6.11	-2.06	-5.82	-0.4
+1% OTM	121	88	0.2	+0.23	-1.43	-2.02	-4.14	0.1
+2% OTM	120	94	1.0	+1.18	+0.02	-1.02	-1.84	0.6
+3% OTM ★	105	100	3.2	+3.36	+2.49	+0.01	+0.00	99.0
+5% OTM	52	100	2.2	+1.15	+0.74	+0.01	+0.00	99.0

Risk-normalized view ($100 max-loss budget/night, ETH)

Structure	win%	$/night	Total$	MaxDD$	r/DD
put +1% naked	81	1.29	156	−56	2.8
put +2% naked	89	0.98	119	−35	3.4
put +3% naked ★	96	0.75	91	−17	5.2
call +3% naked ★	96	0.50	60	−7	8.6
put +3% spread (+size)	92	1.21	146	−99	1.5

Verdict: yes — ~3% OTM beats ATM on risk-adjusted basis. Win rate rises monotonically with distance (put: 81→89→96→100%), MaxDD shrinks faster than premium does → r/DD peaks at 3% OTM. With a fixed risk budget you simply sell MORE units at 3% for the same tail. ATM earns more raw bps per contract but carries 2–3× the drawdown. 5% OTM is past the cliff — no premium left. Touch-statistics agree: a 3% strike is touched in only 3–4% of nights and settles ITM in 1–2% (stable 2024–2026).

⚠️ Caveats: 4 months real data, one high-IV bear (OTM premiums were fat — in calm regimes the 3%-strike premium thins toward the 5% cliff, so the sweet spot may sit closer to 2–2.5%). Limit fills assumed; exec column shows the cross-fill reality — the further OTM, the more the spread matters. ETH-call rows benefit from the bear regime (see the asymmetric call rules on weekly_research).

Source: real ledger 0dte_sell_trades.json (41,860 trades) · build_strike_compare_page.py.