๐Ÿ“Š Donchian(20) BTC 4h ATM โ€” Strategy Master

Library Sharpe +14.23 ยท Library DD -3.28% ยท 567 trades full history.

๐Ÿ“– How the algo works (click to expand)

Donchian-20 channel breakout on 4-hour bars:

H = bars["high"].rolling(20).max().shift(1)   # max of last 20 bars (excluding current)
L = bars["low"].rolling(20).min().shift(1)
long_signal  = close > H   โ†’ buy CALL
short_signal = close < L   โ†’ buy PUT

Pyramid Entry: we fire a NEW option-trade on every 4h bar where the signal is True. At 0.5% risk per trade, max 2 concurrent positions = max 1% total risk. Sven-approved.

Exit: hourly close-based check of mark vs cost. TP at 3ร— cost, SL at 0.5ร— cost, time-exit after 8h or expiry at next 08:00 UTC.

No look-ahead: .shift(1) in Donchian formula uses past 20 bars only, confirmed bars only (confirm==1), entry at bar close (~2 min after in live).

โš ๏ธ Caveat: Spread-Variants haben kleinere N (Tardis hat oft nicht beide Legs). Real-Mark "+120%" auf n=23 kรถnnte Survivorship-Bias sein โ€” schau dir die individuellen Trades unten an um zu verifizieren. Vergleichbar zu naked baseline sind nur TP/SL- und Dynamic-Variants mit n โ‰ˆ 60+.

Variant Comparison โ€” click row to see all trades

Variant ID Label N M2 Total (real n) Real Mark DD Win%
nakedNaked Long ATM (baseline)64-6.3%(63)-8.0%-8.07%17%
spread-1pct-expiryDebit Spread K+1% ยท Hold to Expiry64-20.4%(9)+2.1%-0.50%67%
spread-2pct-expiryDebit Spread K+2% ยท Hold to Expiry64-20.5%(7)+1.9%-0.43%57%
spread-3pct-expiryDebit Spread K+3% ยท Hold to Expiry64-19.8%(6)+3.5%-0.43%50%
spread-4pct-expiryDebit Spread K+4% ยท Hold to Expiry64-19.9%(4)+2.1%-0.32%50%
spread-2pct-tpslDebit Spread K+2% ยท TP/SL Managed64-8.3%(55)-6.4%-6.43%20%
spread-3pct-tpslDebit Spread K+3% ยท TP/SL Managed64-6.3%(49)-5.7%-6.16%18%
dynamic-2pct-halfDynamic Leg-In K+2% at t=mid (if mark 1.2-2.5ร— cost)64-6.1%(62)-7.7%-7.77%21%

Trade Detail

Click a tab to switch variant. Click any trade row to expand position legs + Tardis Bid/Ask + per-series PnL breakdown.