For each HQ signal × direction × DTE × adverse-threshold: how often did spot NOT move adversely by that much? Right metric for premium selling — spot doesn't need to move our way, just NOT strongly against us.
Color code: ≥90% 80-90 70-80 60-70 50-60 <50
Signal predicted UP → we'd sell a bull-put-spread. Non-lose = spot did NOT drop by ≥ X% within the DTE window. Bigger non-lose = safer to sell PUTs at that strike.
Both climax_bar + fake_rising_falling combined.
| PUT side · all signals | DTE | N | ≤ 1% | ≤ 2% | ≤ 3% | ≤ 5% | ≤ 7% | ≤ 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| up | 1h | 117 | 96% | 99% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 4h | 85% | 94% | 97% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||
| 8h | 75% | 85% | 91% | 98% | 99% | 100% | ||
| 1d | 58% | 74% | 81% | 90% | 97% | 98% | ||
| 2d | 49% | 64% | 73% | 82% | 89% | 95% | ||
| 3d | 39% | 59% | 68% | 78% | 85% | 92% | ||
| 5d | 30% | 42% | 49% | 70% | 78% | 85% | ||
| 7d | 28% | 41% | 46% | 67% | 74% | 84% |
climax_bar vs fake_rising_falling separately.
| PUT · Signal | DTE | N | ≤ 1% | ≤ 2% | ≤ 3% | ≤ 5% | ≤ 7% | ≤ 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| climax_bar · up | 1h | 39 | 97% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 4h | 87% | 92% | 97% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||
| 8h | 79% | 85% | 90% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||
| 1d | 56% | 69% | 79% | 92% | 97% | 97% | ||
| 2d | 41% | 59% | 67% | 82% | 87% | 95% | ||
| 3d | 33% | 54% | 62% | 77% | 82% | 90% | ||
| 5d | 18% | 31% | 38% | 72% | 79% | 87% | ||
| 7d | 15% | 31% | 36% | 67% | 74% | 85% | ||
| fake_rising_falling · up | 1h | 78 | 95% | 99% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 4h | 83% | 95% | 97% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||
| 8h | 73% | 86% | 92% | 97% | 99% | 100% | ||
| 1d | 59% | 76% | 82% | 88% | 96% | 99% | ||
| 2d | 53% | 67% | 76% | 82% | 90% | 95% | ||
| 3d | 42% | 62% | 72% | 78% | 86% | 94% | ||
| 5d | 36% | 47% | 54% | 69% | 77% | 85% | ||
| 7d | 35% | 46% | 51% | 67% | 74% | 83% |
BTC vs ETH — crypto skew differs per underlying.
| PUT · Signal · UL | DTE | N | ≤ 1% | ≤ 2% | ≤ 3% | ≤ 5% | ≤ 7% | ≤ 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| climax_bar · up · BTC | 1h | 24 | 96% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 4h | 83% | 92% | 96% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||
| 8h | 75% | 83% | 88% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||
| 1d | 58% | 71% | 83% | 96% | 100% | 100% | ||
| 2d | 46% | 62% | 71% | 88% | 96% | 100% | ||
| 3d | 38% | 58% | 67% | 83% | 92% | 96% | ||
| 5d | 12% | 25% | 38% | 79% | 88% | 96% | ||
| 7d | 12% | 25% | 33% | 75% | 83% | 96% | ||
| climax_bar · up · ETH | 1h | 15 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 4h | 93% | 93% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||
| 8h | 87% | 87% | 93% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||
| 1d | 53% | 67% | 73% | 87% | 93% | 93% | ||
| 2d | 33% | 53% | 60% | 73% | 73% | 87% | ||
| 3d | 27% | 47% | 53% | 67% | 67% | 80% | ||
| 5d | 27% | 40% | 40% | 60% | 67% | 73% | ||
| 7d | 20% | 40% | 40% | 53% | 60% | 67% | ||
| fake_rising_falling · up · BTC | 1h | 43 | 95% | 98% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 4h | 84% | 93% | 98% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||
| 8h | 74% | 81% | 88% | 98% | 98% | 100% | ||
| 1d | 60% | 72% | 81% | 86% | 95% | 98% | ||
| 2d | 58% | 65% | 74% | 81% | 93% | 95% | ||
| 3d | 44% | 63% | 74% | 81% | 91% | 93% | ||
| 5d | 37% | 47% | 56% | 77% | 86% | 91% | ||
| 7d | 35% | 44% | 51% | 72% | 84% | 91% | ||
| fake_rising_falling · up · ETH | 1h | 35 | 94% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 4h | 83% | 97% | 97% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||
| 8h | 71% | 91% | 97% | 97% | 100% | 100% | ||
| 1d | 57% | 80% | 83% | 91% | 97% | 100% | ||
| 2d | 46% | 69% | 77% | 83% | 86% | 94% | ||
| 3d | 40% | 60% | 69% | 74% | 80% | 94% | ||
| 5d | 34% | 49% | 51% | 60% | 66% | 77% | ||
| 7d | 34% | 49% | 51% | 60% | 63% | 74% |
Same matrix per year. If 2024 & 2025 both ≥80% at -5%/3d, the pattern is robust.
| PUT · Signal · Year | DTE | N | ≤ 1% | ≤ 2% | ≤ 3% | ≤ 5% | ≤ 7% | ≤ 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| climax_bar · up · 2024 | 1h | 16 | 94% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 4h | 81% | 81% | 94% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||
| 8h | 69% | 75% | 88% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||
| 1d | 56% | 62% | 81% | 88% | 100% | 100% | ||
| 2d | 50% | 62% | 69% | 81% | 88% | 100% | ||
| 3d | 38% | 56% | 62% | 81% | 81% | 94% | ||
| 5d | 25% | 25% | 25% | 69% | 81% | 94% | ||
| 7d | 19% | 25% | 25% | 56% | 69% | 88% | ||
| climax_bar · up · 2025 | 1h | 19 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 4h | 89% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||
| 8h | 84% | 89% | 89% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||
| 1d | 53% | 74% | 79% | 95% | 95% | 95% | ||
| 2d | 32% | 58% | 68% | 84% | 89% | 95% | ||
| 3d | 26% | 53% | 63% | 79% | 89% | 89% | ||
| 5d | 11% | 32% | 47% | 79% | 84% | 89% | ||
| 7d | 11% | 32% | 42% | 79% | 84% | 89% | ||
| climax_bar · up · 2026 | 1h | 4 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 4h | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||
| 8h | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||
| 1d | 75% | 75% | 75% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||
| 2d | 50% | 50% | 50% | 75% | 75% | 75% | ||
| 3d | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 75% | ||
| 5d | 25% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% | ||
| 7d | 25% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% | ||
| fake_rising_falling · up · 2024 | 1h | 37 | 92% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 4h | 84% | 97% | 97% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||
| 8h | 70% | 92% | 95% | 97% | 97% | 100% | ||
| 1d | 62% | 81% | 89% | 92% | 97% | 97% | ||
| 2d | 54% | 76% | 81% | 86% | 92% | 95% | ||
| 3d | 41% | 68% | 73% | 81% | 89% | 92% | ||
| 5d | 38% | 51% | 54% | 70% | 78% | 84% | ||
| 7d | 38% | 51% | 51% | 68% | 76% | 81% | ||
| fake_rising_falling · up · 2025 | 1h | 30 | 97% | 97% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 4h | 80% | 90% | 97% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||
| 8h | 73% | 77% | 87% | 97% | 100% | 100% | ||
| 1d | 57% | 67% | 73% | 83% | 97% | 100% | ||
| 2d | 53% | 57% | 70% | 77% | 90% | 100% | ||
| 3d | 47% | 57% | 70% | 77% | 87% | 100% | ||
| 5d | 37% | 47% | 57% | 70% | 77% | 90% | ||
| 7d | 33% | 43% | 53% | 67% | 73% | 90% | ||
| fake_rising_falling · up · 2026 | 1h | 11 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 4h | 91% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||
| 8h | 82% | 91% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||
| 1d | 55% | 82% | 82% | 91% | 91% | 100% | ||
| 2d | 45% | 64% | 73% | 82% | 82% | 82% | ||
| 3d | 36% | 55% | 73% | 73% | 73% | 82% | ||
| 5d | 27% | 36% | 45% | 64% | 73% | 73% | ||
| 7d | 27% | 36% | 45% | 64% | 73% | 73% |
Signal predicted DOWN → we'd sell a bear-call-spread. Non-lose = spot did NOT rise by ≥ X% within the DTE window. Bigger non-lose = safer to sell CALLs at that strike.
Both climax_bar + fake_rising_falling combined.
| CALL side · all signals | DTE | N | ≤ 1% | ≤ 2% | ≤ 3% | ≤ 5% | ≤ 7% | ≤ 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| down | 1h | 101 | 98% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 4h | 82% | 90% | 99% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||
| 8h | 74% | 88% | 95% | 98% | 98% | 100% | ||
| 1d | 53% | 77% | 85% | 94% | 98% | 100% | ||
| 2d | 43% | 58% | 73% | 90% | 97% | 100% | ||
| 3d | 34% | 48% | 62% | 86% | 92% | 99% | ||
| 5d | 23% | 35% | 49% | 71% | 80% | 92% | ||
| 7d | 22% | 32% | 45% | 63% | 70% | 84% |
climax_bar vs fake_rising_falling separately.
| CALL · Signal | DTE | N | ≤ 1% | ≤ 2% | ≤ 3% | ≤ 5% | ≤ 7% | ≤ 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| climax_bar · down | 1h | 32 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 4h | 91% | 94% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||
| 8h | 75% | 88% | 94% | 97% | 97% | 100% | ||
| 1d | 53% | 75% | 91% | 91% | 97% | 100% | ||
| 2d | 41% | 53% | 84% | 91% | 97% | 100% | ||
| 3d | 31% | 44% | 69% | 88% | 91% | 100% | ||
| 5d | 19% | 31% | 53% | 75% | 88% | 94% | ||
| 7d | 19% | 28% | 50% | 66% | 72% | 84% | ||
| fake_rising_falling · down | 1h | 69 | 97% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 4h | 78% | 88% | 99% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||
| 8h | 74% | 88% | 96% | 99% | 99% | 100% | ||
| 1d | 54% | 78% | 83% | 96% | 99% | 100% | ||
| 2d | 43% | 61% | 68% | 90% | 97% | 100% | ||
| 3d | 35% | 49% | 59% | 86% | 93% | 99% | ||
| 5d | 25% | 36% | 46% | 70% | 77% | 91% | ||
| 7d | 23% | 33% | 42% | 62% | 70% | 84% |
BTC vs ETH.
| CALL · Signal · UL | DTE | N | ≤ 1% | ≤ 2% | ≤ 3% | ≤ 5% | ≤ 7% | ≤ 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| climax_bar · down · BTC | 1h | 21 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 4h | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||
| 8h | 86% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||
| 1d | 57% | 86% | 95% | 95% | 100% | 100% | ||
| 2d | 38% | 57% | 86% | 95% | 100% | 100% | ||
| 3d | 29% | 48% | 67% | 90% | 90% | 100% | ||
| 5d | 19% | 38% | 48% | 76% | 86% | 95% | ||
| 7d | 19% | 33% | 48% | 71% | 76% | 90% | ||
| climax_bar · down · ETH | 1h | 11 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 4h | 73% | 82% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||
| 8h | 55% | 64% | 82% | 91% | 91% | 100% | ||
| 1d | 45% | 55% | 82% | 82% | 91% | 100% | ||
| 2d | 45% | 45% | 82% | 82% | 91% | 100% | ||
| 3d | 36% | 36% | 73% | 82% | 91% | 100% | ||
| 5d | 18% | 18% | 64% | 73% | 91% | 91% | ||
| 7d | 18% | 18% | 55% | 55% | 64% | 73% | ||
| fake_rising_falling · down · BTC | 1h | 31 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 4h | 84% | 94% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||
| 8h | 77% | 94% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||
| 1d | 58% | 87% | 87% | 97% | 100% | 100% | ||
| 2d | 42% | 68% | 71% | 90% | 97% | 100% | ||
| 3d | 35% | 58% | 65% | 87% | 94% | 97% | ||
| 5d | 29% | 52% | 58% | 81% | 87% | 90% | ||
| 7d | 29% | 48% | 55% | 74% | 81% | 87% | ||
| fake_rising_falling · down · ETH | 1h | 38 | 95% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 4h | 74% | 84% | 97% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||
| 8h | 71% | 84% | 92% | 97% | 97% | 100% | ||
| 1d | 50% | 71% | 79% | 95% | 97% | 100% | ||
| 2d | 45% | 55% | 66% | 89% | 97% | 100% | ||
| 3d | 34% | 42% | 55% | 84% | 92% | 100% | ||
| 5d | 21% | 24% | 37% | 61% | 68% | 92% | ||
| 7d | 18% | 21% | 32% | 53% | 61% | 82% |
Per-year breakdown.
| CALL · Signal · Year | DTE | N | ≤ 1% | ≤ 2% | ≤ 3% | ≤ 5% | ≤ 7% | ≤ 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| climax_bar · down · 2024 | 1h | 19 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 4h | 95% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||
| 8h | 74% | 89% | 95% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||
| 1d | 58% | 74% | 89% | 89% | 100% | 100% | ||
| 2d | 42% | 58% | 89% | 89% | 100% | 100% | ||
| 3d | 26% | 42% | 74% | 84% | 89% | 100% | ||
| 5d | 16% | 32% | 53% | 68% | 84% | 95% | ||
| 7d | 16% | 26% | 47% | 53% | 58% | 79% | ||
| climax_bar · down · 2025 | 1h | 10 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 4h | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||
| 8h | 90% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||
| 1d | 50% | 90% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||
| 2d | 40% | 50% | 80% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||
| 3d | 40% | 50% | 60% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||
| 5d | 20% | 30% | 50% | 90% | 100% | 100% | ||
| 7d | 20% | 30% | 50% | 90% | 100% | 100% | ||
| climax_bar · down · 2026 | 1h | 3 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 4h | 33% | 33% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||
| 8h | 33% | 33% | 67% | 67% | 67% | 100% | ||
| 1d | 33% | 33% | 67% | 67% | 67% | 100% | ||
| 2d | 33% | 33% | 67% | 67% | 67% | 100% | ||
| 3d | 33% | 33% | 67% | 67% | 67% | 100% | ||
| 5d | 33% | 33% | 67% | 67% | 67% | 67% | ||
| 7d | 33% | 33% | 67% | 67% | 67% | 67% | ||
| fake_rising_falling · down · 2024 | 1h | 30 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 4h | 77% | 93% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||
| 8h | 70% | 93% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||
| 1d | 50% | 73% | 77% | 97% | 100% | 100% | ||
| 2d | 43% | 60% | 67% | 83% | 97% | 100% | ||
| 3d | 30% | 50% | 60% | 83% | 90% | 97% | ||
| 5d | 20% | 37% | 50% | 60% | 73% | 87% | ||
| 7d | 17% | 30% | 43% | 43% | 57% | 77% | ||
| fake_rising_falling · down · 2025 | 1h | 31 | 97% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 4h | 90% | 94% | 97% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||
| 8h | 87% | 94% | 97% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||
| 1d | 65% | 94% | 97% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||
| 2d | 48% | 71% | 81% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||
| 3d | 42% | 55% | 68% | 90% | 97% | 100% | ||
| 5d | 29% | 39% | 48% | 81% | 81% | 97% | ||
| 7d | 29% | 39% | 45% | 81% | 81% | 90% | ||
| fake_rising_falling · down · 2026 | 1h | 8 | 88% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 4h | 38% | 50% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||
| 8h | 38% | 50% | 75% | 88% | 88% | 100% | ||
| 1d | 25% | 38% | 50% | 75% | 88% | 100% | ||
| 2d | 25% | 25% | 25% | 75% | 88% | 100% | ||
| 3d | 25% | 25% | 25% | 75% | 88% | 100% | ||
| 5d | 25% | 25% | 25% | 62% | 75% | 88% | ||
| 7d | 25% | 25% | 25% | 62% | 75% | 88% |